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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.69 - $133.32$124.94
Multi-Stage$19.58 - $21.42$20.49
Blended Fair Value$72.72
Current Price$11.97
Upside507.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.13%0.00%0.290.400.280.110.160.060.020.020.070.03
YoY Growth---25.75%41.01%164.16%-31.70%166.14%167.68%8.65%-69.12%119.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.54%2.30%1.54%2.97%0.88%0.30%0.21%0.40%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0736.9222.15
Cash Retained (M)154.71154.71154.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.07-36.92-22.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.64117.79132.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)440.58440.58440.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.69$124.94$133.32
Upside / Downside356.86%943.81%1,013.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.36314.56335.01356.78379.97404.67416.81
Payout Ratio47.62%56.10%64.57%73.05%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.65176.46216.32260.62309.77364.20385.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)164.08165.63167.19
Year 2 PV (M)187.04190.60194.19
Year 3 PV (M)209.53215.55221.67
Year 4 PV (M)231.57240.48249.64
Year 5 PV (M)253.16265.39278.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,582.187,948.408,328.64
Equity Value (M)8,627.569,026.059,439.42
Shares Outstanding (M)440.58440.58440.58
Fair Value$19.58$20.49$21.42
Upside / Downside63.59%71.15%78.99%

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