Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Healthcare Co., Ltd. (603313.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.67 - $57.15$53.56
Multi-Stage$8.69 - $9.51$9.09
Blended Fair Value$31.32
Current Price$8.99
Upside248.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.08%46.52%0.220.270.240.460.130.170.040.510.080.05
YoY Growth---17.09%11.98%-47.55%262.29%-27.39%324.61%-91.97%540.00%57.03%938.91%
Dividend Yield--3.65%2.89%2.24%3.71%0.48%1.27%0.22%3.66%0.40%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.4920.3112.18
Cash Retained (M)64.9064.9064.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.49-20.31-12.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.4044.5952.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)565.37565.37565.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.67$53.56$57.15
Upside / Downside185.59%495.74%535.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.46173.02184.27196.25209.00222.59229.27
Payout Ratio60.06%66.04%72.03%78.02%84.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.57114.27132.74153.12175.59200.33212.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.35107.35108.36
Year 2 PV (M)114.96117.15119.36
Year 3 PV (M)123.41126.96130.57
Year 4 PV (M)131.71136.77141.98
Year 5 PV (M)139.84146.60153.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,297.684,505.264,720.79
Equity Value (M)4,913.955,140.095,374.67
Shares Outstanding (M)565.37565.37565.37
Fair Value$8.69$9.09$9.51
Upside / Downside-3.32%1.13%5.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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