Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. (601811.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.42 - $262.18$245.70
Multi-Stage$42.00 - $45.98$43.95
Blended Fair Value$144.83
Current Price$14.61
Upside891.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.77%10.81%0.770.340.320.310.300.300.300.410.190.28
YoY Growth--125.96%6.42%3.38%3.33%0.00%-0.19%-26.20%111.53%-30.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.05%2.26%2.69%3.25%3.01%2.74%2.02%3.14%0.88%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,630.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)559.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,071.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)326.08203.80122.28
Cash Retained (M)1,071.111,071.111,071.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-326.08-203.80-122.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)745.03867.31948.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,236.701,236.701,236.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$153.42$245.70$262.18
Upside / Downside950.12%1,581.76%1,694.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,630.391,736.361,849.231,969.432,097.442,233.772,300.79
Payout Ratio34.30%45.44%56.58%67.72%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)559.28789.051,046.331,333.721,654.062,010.402,128.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)735.84742.81749.79
Year 2 PV (M)909.95927.29944.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,081.661,112.711,144.35
Year 4 PV (M)1,250.981,299.091,348.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,417.941,486.421,557.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,540.6548,788.5851,122.55
Equity Value (M)51,937.0254,356.9156,867.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,236.701,236.701,236.70
Fair Value$42.00$43.95$45.98
Upside / Downside187.45%200.84%214.74%

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