Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited (601018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.88 - $47.48$44.50
Multi-Stage$7.01 - $7.67$7.33
Blended Fair Value$25.91
Current Price$3.65
Upside610.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.01%4.57%0.110.110.070.070.070.060.080.070.090.11
YoY Growth--1.59%52.70%9.76%-0.61%4.21%-21.76%9.68%-13.67%-19.23%48.20%
Dividend Yield--3.02%3.22%2.01%1.69%1.60%1.81%1.82%1.40%1.58%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,665.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,280.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,384.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)933.01583.13349.88
Cash Retained (M)2,384.802,384.802,384.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-933.01-583.13-349.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,451.791,801.672,034.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$17.88$44.50$47.48
Upside / Downside389.92%1,119.16%1,200.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,665.034,962.685,279.325,616.165,974.506,355.706,546.37
Payout Ratio48.88%57.10%65.33%73.55%81.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,280.232,833.863,448.854,130.784,885.705,720.136,055.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)2,635.702,660.722,685.73
Year 2 PV (M)2,983.403,040.293,097.72
Year 3 PV (M)3,323.443,418.963,516.28
Year 4 PV (M)3,655.963,796.723,941.50
Year 5 PV (M)3,981.064,173.574,373.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)120,159.38125,969.83132,002.92
Equity Value (M)136,738.95143,060.09149,617.61
Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
Fair Value$7.01$7.33$7.67
Upside / Downside91.96%100.83%110.03%

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