Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Caida Securities Co., Ltd. (600906.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.36 - $20.17$11.37
Multi-Stage$10.63 - $11.68$11.14
Blended Fair Value$11.26
Current Price$7.23
Upside55.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.45%18.80%0.200.150.220.210.220.250.190.080.320.15
YoY Growth--33.38%-31.69%3.16%-4.84%-10.96%30.25%151.34%-76.43%120.67%312.72%
Dividend Yield--3.01%2.09%2.77%1.94%4.13%4.63%3.56%1.42%6.00%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)980.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)864.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.12122.5873.55
Cash Retained (M)864.17864.17864.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.12-122.58-73.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)668.05741.59790.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,098.903,098.903,098.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Fair Value$7.36$11.37$20.17
Upside / Downside1.81%57.23%178.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)980.611,010.881,042.081,074.251,107.421,141.601,175.85
Payout Ratio11.87%27.50%43.12%58.75%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.44277.98449.39631.12823.641,027.441,087.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Year 1 PV (M)260.69263.25265.80
Year 2 PV (M)395.23403.01410.87
Year 3 PV (M)520.53535.98551.73
Year 4 PV (M)637.06662.39688.47
Year 5 PV (M)745.27782.49821.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,368.3131,885.1133,461.92
Equity Value (M)32,927.0934,532.2336,199.97
Shares Outstanding (M)3,098.903,098.903,098.90
Fair Value$10.63$11.14$11.68
Upside / Downside46.96%54.13%61.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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