Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co., Ltd (600882.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.63 - $89.18$29.41
Multi-Stage$9.00 - $9.85$9.42
Blended Fair Value$19.41
Current Price$24.38
Upside-20.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.37%-19.89%0.050.030.060.040.080.180.180.160.040.00
YoY Growth--59.58%-39.53%31.36%-45.42%-56.55%1.87%11.27%295.27%876.02%-99.17%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.24%0.19%0.12%0.14%0.79%1.81%1.92%0.39%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9025.5615.34
Cash Retained (M)172.18172.18172.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.90-25.56-15.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.28146.62156.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.10456.10456.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.63$29.41$89.18
Upside / Downside-35.87%20.64%265.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.52217.81231.97247.05263.10280.20288.61
Payout Ratio15.81%30.65%45.49%60.32%75.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3366.75105.51149.03197.75252.18266.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.2761.8662.44
Year 2 PV (M)88.9090.5992.30
Year 3 PV (M)115.26118.56121.94
Year 4 PV (M)140.38145.78151.34
Year 5 PV (M)164.33172.26180.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,535.263,706.023,883.31
Equity Value (M)4,105.404,295.084,491.82
Shares Outstanding (M)456.10456.10456.10
Fair Value$9.00$9.42$9.85
Upside / Downside-63.08%-61.37%-59.61%

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