Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd (600864.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.35 - $3.45$2.88
Multi-Stage$6.14 - $6.78$6.45
Blended Fair Value$4.67
Current Price$7.35
Upside-36.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.41%8.03%0.160.170.280.250.340.280.500.230.150.11
YoY Growth---6.71%-39.43%15.44%-28.09%23.07%-44.65%115.24%51.59%36.26%52.40%
Dividend Yield--2.64%3.23%5.60%4.43%5.66%4.29%6.28%3.63%1.53%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)620.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.1677.6046.56
Cash Retained (M)435.76435.76435.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.16-77.60-46.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.60358.16389.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Fair Value$2.35$2.88$3.45
Upside / Downside-68.09%-60.85%-53.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)620.82603.54586.73570.39554.51539.07555.24
Payout Ratio29.81%41.85%53.89%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.06252.56316.16376.02432.30485.16513.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)235.19237.63240.08
Year 2 PV (M)274.15279.88285.67
Year 3 PV (M)303.63313.19322.96
Year 4 PV (M)325.06338.78352.94
Year 5 PV (M)339.70357.73376.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,951.5811,532.6512,138.13
Equity Value (M)12,429.3113,059.8713,716.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
Fair Value$6.14$6.45$6.78
Upside / Downside-16.44%-12.20%-7.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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