Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.,Ltd. (600848.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.94 - $126.27$118.33
Multi-Stage$19.07 - $20.87$19.95
Blended Fair Value$69.14
Current Price$11.50
Upside501.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.12%21.63%0.580.550.590.510.450.250.700.050.060.06
YoY Growth--5.01%-6.30%15.60%12.84%79.18%-63.84%1,393.66%-19.57%-8.65%-22.37%
Dividend Yield--6.15%5.56%4.65%3.62%2.96%1.51%2.80%0.22%0.35%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,580.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)629.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)951.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)316.17197.61118.56
Cash Retained (M)951.72951.72951.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-316.17-197.61-118.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)635.55754.11833.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.912,489.912,489.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.94$118.33$126.27
Upside / Downside403.85%928.95%997.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,580.841,683.601,793.031,909.582,033.702,165.892,230.87
Payout Ratio39.80%49.84%59.88%69.92%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)629.13839.071,073.641,335.161,626.141,949.302,063.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)781.01788.41795.81
Year 2 PV (M)930.20947.92965.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,076.741,107.651,139.15
Year 4 PV (M)1,220.671,267.611,315.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,362.011,427.791,496.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,099.8644,133.3046,244.57
Equity Value (M)47,470.4949,672.6951,957.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.912,489.912,489.91
Fair Value$19.07$19.95$20.87
Upside / Downside65.78%73.47%81.45%

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