Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600535.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $6.30$5.38
Multi-Stage$12.83 - $14.15$13.47
Blended Fair Value$9.43
Current Price$15.80
Upside-40.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.17%5.61%0.700.380.370.410.540.300.580.620.410.43
YoY Growth--85.09%1.67%-9.26%-23.62%76.69%-47.41%-7.50%50.90%-3.04%5.21%
Dividend Yield--4.62%2.31%2.46%2.67%3.98%2.19%2.41%1.92%1.44%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,097.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)827.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.55137.2282.33
Cash Retained (M)270.46270.46270.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.55-137.22-82.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.91133.24188.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,493.741,493.741,493.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-5.84%-4.84%-3.84%
Fair Value$4.47$5.38$6.30
Upside / Downside-71.70%-65.97%-60.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,097.761,044.57993.96945.81899.98856.38882.07
Payout Ratio75.36%78.29%81.22%84.14%87.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)827.30817.79807.27795.85783.64770.74815.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-5.84%-4.84%-3.84%
Year 1 PV (M)759.57767.63775.70
Year 2 PV (M)696.40711.28726.30
Year 3 PV (M)637.67658.20679.17
Year 4 PV (M)583.18608.35634.33
Year 5 PV (M)532.74561.64591.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,955.2716,820.7517,723.38
Equity Value (M)19,164.8220,127.8421,130.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,493.741,493.741,493.74
Fair Value$12.83$13.47$14.15
Upside / Downside-18.80%-14.72%-10.47%

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