Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.,Ltd. (600219.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.65 - $88.18$82.64
Multi-Stage$13.33 - $14.59$13.94
Blended Fair Value$48.29
Current Price$3.96
Upside1,119.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.29%24.10%0.220.040.060.060.050.050.050.040.020.02
YoY Growth--436.82%-37.17%13.40%10.00%0.00%7.65%20.00%63.15%0.00%-2.28%
Dividend Yield--5.72%1.18%1.91%1.40%1.50%2.52%1.73%1.37%0.82%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,112.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,002.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,109.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,022.47639.04383.43
Cash Retained (M)3,109.943,109.943,109.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,022.47-639.04-383.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,087.472,470.902,726.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,529.9311,529.9311,529.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.65$82.64$88.18
Upside / Downside926.55%1,986.82%2,126.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,112.345,444.655,798.556,175.456,576.867,004.357,214.48
Payout Ratio39.17%49.33%59.50%69.67%79.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,002.402,686.083,450.184,302.275,250.546,303.926,673.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,500.332,524.032,547.73
Year 2 PV (M)2,989.493,046.433,103.91
Year 3 PV (M)3,470.003,569.613,671.11
Year 4 PV (M)3,941.974,093.574,249.49
Year 5 PV (M)4,405.524,618.304,839.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)136,343.44142,928.88149,766.36
Equity Value (M)153,650.73160,780.81168,177.83
Shares Outstanding (M)11,529.9311,529.9311,529.93
Fair Value$13.33$13.94$14.59
Upside / Downside236.52%252.14%268.34%

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