Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chaheng Precision Co., Ltd. (4546.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.90 - $50.40$43.75
Multi-Stage$117.66 - $130.58$123.98
Blended Fair Value$83.87
Current Price$90.90
Upside-7.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-35.25%0.00%0.800.000.000.007.037.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)252.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.5331.5818.95
Cash Retained (M)225.64225.64225.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.53-31.58-18.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.11194.06206.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.185.746.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.185.746.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.986.546.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Fair Value$36.90$43.75$50.40
Upside / Downside-59.41%-51.87%-44.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)252.66233.44215.69199.28184.13170.12175.23
Payout Ratio10.69%26.56%42.42%58.28%74.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.0261.9991.49116.14136.51153.11162.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)57.7358.3759.00
Year 2 PV (M)79.3581.1082.86
Year 3 PV (M)93.8196.93100.11
Year 4 PV (M)102.69107.26111.98
Year 5 PV (M)107.27113.27119.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,534.343,731.983,938.36
Equity Value (M)3,975.214,188.904,411.84
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
Fair Value$117.66$123.98$130.58
Upside / Downside29.44%36.40%43.65%

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