Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Vario Secure Inc. (4494.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$572.91 - $835.67$699.90
Multi-Stage$946.39 - $1,042.30$993.40
Blended Fair Value$846.65
Current Price$805.00
Upside5.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.0940.3333.8532.680.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.78%19.13%3.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%6.31%3.95%2.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)346.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.3143.3225.99
Cash Retained (M)346.46346.46346.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.31-43.32-25.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)277.15303.14320.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.534.534.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share61.1566.8970.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share61.1566.8970.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.1766.9170.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$572.91$699.90$835.67
Upside / Downside-28.83%-13.06%3.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)346.54343.08339.65336.25332.89329.56339.44
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0961.82122.32181.61239.70296.60313.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)56.4257.0057.57
Year 2 PV (M)101.89103.98106.09
Year 3 PV (M)138.05142.32146.68
Year 4 PV (M)166.30173.19180.29
Year 5 PV (M)187.80197.58207.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,638.523,827.994,025.26
Equity Value (M)4,288.984,502.064,723.66
Shares Outstanding (M)4.534.534.53
Fair Value$946.39$993.40$1,042.30
Upside / Downside17.56%23.40%29.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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