Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation (4091.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41,730.94 - $49,166.12$46,075.85
Multi-Stage$52,951.48 - $58,129.56$55,492.10
Blended Fair Value$50,783.98
Current Price$5,247.00
Upside867.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.20%14.87%48.0040.0035.9932.0028.0027.0024.0022.0018.0014.00
YoY Growth--20.00%11.15%12.46%14.29%3.70%12.50%9.08%22.23%28.58%16.63%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.84%1.16%1.48%1.23%1.50%1.05%1.39%1.43%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,011.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22,078.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)84,933.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,402.2013,376.388,025.83
Cash Retained (M)84,933.0084,933.0084,933.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,402.20-13,376.38-8,025.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)63,530.8071,556.6376,907.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.86432.86432.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share146.77165.31177.67
LTM Dividend per Share51.0151.0151.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share146.77165.31177.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend197.78216.32228.68
WACC / Discount Rate-9.82%-9.82%-9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41,730.94$46,075.85$49,166.12
Upside / Downside695.33%778.14%837.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,011.00113,966.72121,374.55129,263.90137,666.05146,614.34151,012.77
Payout Ratio20.63%34.51%48.38%62.25%76.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22,078.0039,324.4658,719.6980,470.15104,800.08131,952.91139,686.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-9.82%-9.82%-9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43,194.9743,604.4044,013.83
Year 2 PV (M)70,847.4872,196.9273,559.10
Year 3 PV (M)106,646.30109,707.73112,827.20
Year 4 PV (M)152,560.78158,427.84164,462.51
Year 5 PV (M)210,994.24221,185.34231,766.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,336,084.1823,414,925.4024,535,056.41
Equity Value (M)22,920,327.9424,020,047.6225,161,685.52
Shares Outstanding (M)432.86432.86432.86
Fair Value$52,951.48$55,492.10$58,129.56
Upside / Downside909.18%957.60%1,007.86%

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