Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seiren Co.,Ltd. (3569.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,918.55 - $50,988.31$47,783.52
Multi-Stage$7,848.19 - $8,594.54$8,214.49
Blended Fair Value$27,999.00
Current Price$3,050.00
Upside818.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.25%13.37%58.4641.7339.0332.6833.8135.8830.3433.3725.2722.24
YoY Growth--40.06%6.94%19.42%-3.35%-5.75%18.24%-9.08%32.08%13.62%33.40%
Dividend Yield--2.51%1.73%1.59%1.62%1.54%2.64%1.96%1.93%1.43%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,149.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,022.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,127.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,029.801,893.631,136.18
Cash Retained (M)11,127.0011,127.0011,127.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,029.80-1,893.63-1,136.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,097.209,233.389,990.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.0959.0959.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share137.04156.27169.09
LTM Dividend per Share68.0768.0768.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share137.04156.27169.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend205.11224.34237.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25,918.55$47,783.52$50,988.31
Upside / Downside749.79%1,466.67%1,571.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,149.0016,133.6917,182.3718,299.2319,488.6820,755.4421,378.11
Payout Ratio26.55%39.24%51.93%64.62%77.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,022.006,330.818,922.7711,824.9315,066.6818,679.9019,774.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,897.755,953.656,009.55
Year 2 PV (M)7,743.797,891.298,040.18
Year 3 PV (M)9,560.499,834.9310,114.58
Year 4 PV (M)11,348.1811,784.6012,233.48
Year 5 PV (M)13,107.2113,740.2914,397.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)416,070.38436,166.74457,032.23
Equity Value (M)463,727.80485,371.50507,827.63
Shares Outstanding (M)59.0959.0959.09
Fair Value$7,848.19$8,214.49$8,594.54
Upside / Downside157.32%169.33%181.79%

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