Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. (3498.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,466.31 - $10,870.54$8,395.39
Multi-Stage$5,162.65 - $5,629.95$5,392.12
Blended Fair Value$6,893.76
Current Price$8,810.00
Upside-21.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS97.90%0.00%83.4924.4712.036.643.162.750.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--241.13%103.39%81.20%110.15%14.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.39%0.26%0.26%0.12%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,670.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,050.201,281.38768.83
Cash Retained (M)8,581.008,581.008,581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,050.20-1,281.38-768.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,530.807,299.637,812.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
LTM Dividend per Share83.4483.4483.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend409.75448.16473.77
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,466.31$8,395.39$10,870.54
Upside / Downside-26.60%-4.71%23.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,251.0010,917.3211,626.9412,382.6913,187.5714,044.7614,466.10
Payout Ratio16.29%31.03%45.77%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,670.003,387.965,322.197,493.569,924.7312,640.2813,381.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,991.613,019.973,048.32
Year 2 PV (M)4,149.784,228.824,308.61
Year 3 PV (M)5,159.305,307.405,458.31
Year 4 PV (M)6,033.766,265.806,504.47
Year 5 PV (M)6,785.687,113.437,453.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,206.4381,983.8385,905.80
Equity Value (M)103,326.56107,919.26112,679.25
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
Fair Value$5,162.65$5,392.12$5,629.95
Upside / Downside-41.40%-38.80%-36.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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