Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd. (300916.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.55 - $13.11$10.68
Multi-Stage$18.67 - $20.54$19.59
Blended Fair Value$15.13
Current Price$38.68
Upside-60.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.320.330.130.090.250.000.100.010.130.00
YoY Growth---3.76%150.00%50.00%-64.52%0.00%-100.00%898.27%-91.96%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.05%1.63%0.46%0.39%1.02%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2917.0610.23
Cash Retained (M)78.0778.0778.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.29-17.06-10.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.7861.0167.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.58144.58144.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.55$10.68$13.11
Upside / Downside-77.90%-72.40%-66.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.46135.09133.74132.40131.08129.77133.66
Payout Ratio42.79%52.23%61.67%71.12%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.3970.5682.4894.16105.60116.79123.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4966.1666.83
Year 2 PV (M)71.0572.5173.98
Year 3 PV (M)75.2877.6179.98
Year 4 PV (M)78.3581.6084.95
Year 5 PV (M)80.4384.6288.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,328.202,449.442,575.67
Equity Value (M)2,698.802,831.932,970.38
Shares Outstanding (M)144.58144.58144.58
Fair Value$18.67$19.59$20.54
Upside / Downside-51.74%-49.36%-46.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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