Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shengtak New Material Co., Ltd (300881.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.44 - $334.84$313.79
Multi-Stage$52.60 - $57.53$55.02
Blended Fair Value$184.41
Current Price$34.46
Upside435.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS80.42%25.56%0.740.450.160.170.000.040.080.490.060.07
YoY Growth--63.59%190.11%-10.96%0.00%-100.00%-52.37%-83.38%736.89%-14.04%-10.52%
Dividend Yield--2.25%1.63%0.51%0.81%0.00%0.05%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)184.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.9123.0713.84
Cash Retained (M)64.2064.2064.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.91-23.07-13.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.2941.1350.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.62109.62109.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.380.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.380.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.351.471.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.44$313.79$334.84
Upside / Downside385.89%810.61%871.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)184.56196.56209.33222.94237.43252.86260.45
Payout Ratio65.22%70.17%75.13%80.09%85.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.36137.93157.27178.54201.92227.58240.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)128.48129.70130.91
Year 2 PV (M)136.46139.05141.68
Year 3 PV (M)144.30148.44152.66
Year 4 PV (M)152.01157.85163.86
Year 5 PV (M)159.58167.29175.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,044.845,288.515,541.50
Equity Value (M)5,765.666,030.846,305.91
Shares Outstanding (M)109.62109.62109.62
Fair Value$52.60$55.02$57.53
Upside / Downside52.63%59.65%66.94%

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