Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300636.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.99 - $44.76$41.95
Multi-Stage$10.46 - $11.47$10.96
Blended Fair Value$26.45
Current Price$8.46
Upside212.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.23%10.96%0.070.040.080.030.030.010.020.000.000.01
YoY Growth--84.73%-50.91%193.64%0.07%227.48%-62.68%2,000.20%-70.23%-64.33%-61.03%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.49%0.59%0.16%0.22%0.08%0.39%0.01%0.06%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.9011.817.09
Cash Retained (M)58.4258.4258.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.90-11.81-7.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.5246.6151.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.89419.89419.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.99$41.95$44.76
Upside / Downside349.11%395.87%429.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.51100.66107.20114.17121.59129.49133.37
Payout Ratio38.18%48.55%58.91%69.27%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0948.8663.1579.0996.83116.54123.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.9946.4346.87
Year 2 PV (M)55.9557.0158.09
Year 3 PV (M)65.9567.8569.77
Year 4 PV (M)76.0078.9381.93
Year 5 PV (M)86.1090.2694.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,063.184,259.434,463.20
Equity Value (M)4,393.184,599.914,814.44
Shares Outstanding (M)419.89419.89419.89
Fair Value$10.46$10.96$11.47
Upside / Downside23.67%29.49%35.53%

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