Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhen Yu Hardware Co., Ltd. (2947.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.33 - $44.26$36.38
Multi-Stage$60.07 - $66.03$62.99
Blended Fair Value$49.68
Current Price$90.40
Upside-45.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.00%0.00%1.671.394.632.992.332.530.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%-70.00%54.97%28.17%-7.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.91%5.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.278.925.35
Cash Retained (M)30.9030.9030.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.27-8.92-5.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.6221.9825.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.951.951.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.753.003.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.33$36.38$44.26
Upside / Downside-67.55%-59.76%-51.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.3670.6569.9469.2468.5567.8669.90
Payout Ratio56.70%63.36%70.02%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4644.7648.9753.0957.1361.0864.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.3541.7742.19
Year 2 PV (M)41.7842.6443.50
Year 3 PV (M)41.8443.1344.45
Year 4 PV (M)41.5843.3045.08
Year 5 PV (M)41.0643.2045.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,041.421,095.641,152.11
Equity Value (M)1,249.011,309.681,372.75
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
Fair Value$60.07$62.99$66.03
Upside / Downside-33.55%-30.32%-26.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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