Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lawson, Inc. (2651.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,731.36 - $20,318.73$13,737.50
Multi-Stage$7,187.62 - $7,847.57$7,511.64
Blended Fair Value$10,624.57
Current Price$10,325.00
Upside2.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.46%-0.85%192.29149.84149.83149.82202.25254.68252.12247.06242.05229.37
YoY Growth--28.33%0.01%0.01%-25.93%-20.58%1.01%2.05%2.07%5.53%9.54%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.46%3.29%3.04%3.45%5.02%3.56%3.27%2.76%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53,019.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,759.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)41,260.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,603.806,627.383,976.43
Cash Retained (M)41,260.0041,260.0041,260.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,603.80-6,627.38-3,976.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,656.2034,632.6337,283.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.18100.18100.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share306.00345.70372.16
LTM Dividend per Share117.38117.38117.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share306.00345.70372.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend423.38463.07489.53
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,731.36$13,737.50$20,318.73
Upside / Downside-5.75%33.05%96.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53,019.0056,465.2460,135.4864,044.2868,207.1672,640.6274,819.84
Payout Ratio22.18%35.74%49.31%62.87%76.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,759.0020,182.4129,651.1840,265.6252,134.6765,376.5669,208.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,160.5118,332.6518,504.79
Year 2 PV (M)24,007.7924,465.0724,926.67
Year 3 PV (M)29,335.9230,178.0531,036.15
Year 4 PV (M)34,178.0335,492.4236,844.36
Year 5 PV (M)38,565.3840,428.1042,362.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)575,824.15603,636.67632,513.64
Equity Value (M)720,071.79752,532.97786,187.73
Shares Outstanding (M)100.18100.18100.18
Fair Value$7,187.62$7,511.64$7,847.57
Upside / Downside-30.39%-27.25%-23.99%

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