Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sakura Development Co.,Ltd (2539.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$854.16 - $1,006.34$943.09
Multi-Stage$291.98 - $320.29$305.87
Blended Fair Value$624.48
Current Price$48.55
Upside1,186.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.24%19.79%0.330.140.120.110.440.080.540.530.300.23
YoY Growth--133.03%14.76%14.69%-75.90%468.03%-85.60%3.13%74.55%32.00%323.33%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.27%0.53%0.60%2.78%0.63%5.38%5.48%3.55%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,289.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)497.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,792.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,057.96661.22396.73
Cash Retained (M)4,792.654,792.654,792.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,057.96-661.22-396.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,734.704,131.434,395.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.371,045.371,045.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.573.954.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.573.954.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.054.434.68
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$854.16$943.09$1,006.34
Upside / Downside1,659.34%1,842.52%1,972.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,289.785,633.615,999.806,389.786,805.127,247.457,464.88
Payout Ratio9.40%25.52%41.64%57.76%73.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)497.131,437.602,498.243,690.685,027.596,522.716,905.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,358.891,371.771,384.65
Year 2 PV (M)2,232.152,274.662,317.58
Year 3 PV (M)3,117.023,206.503,297.68
Year 4 PV (M)4,013.634,167.984,326.75
Year 5 PV (M)4,922.095,159.835,406.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)289,583.62303,570.61318,092.92
Equity Value (M)305,227.39319,751.35334,826.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.371,045.371,045.37
Fair Value$291.98$305.87$320.29
Upside / Downside501.40%530.02%559.72%

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