Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Giant Biogene Holding Co., Ltd. (2367.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.27 - $57.65$46.72
Multi-Stage$83.29 - $91.79$87.46
Blended Fair Value$67.09
Current Price$52.63
Upside27.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.900.000.372.540.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-85.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.93%0.00%1.23%11.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,029.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)908.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,120.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)805.85503.66302.19
Cash Retained (M)3,120.813,120.813,120.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-805.85-503.66-302.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,314.962,617.152,818.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,005.891,005.891,005.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.302.602.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.302.602.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.503.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$37.27$46.72$57.65
Upside / Downside-29.19%-11.23%9.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,029.243,988.953,949.063,909.573,870.473,831.773,946.72
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)908.441,437.491,955.882,463.752,961.273,448.593,650.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,337.041,350.681,364.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,692.071,726.781,761.84
Year 3 PV (M)1,982.502,043.812,106.37
Year 4 PV (M)2,216.322,308.182,402.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,400.692,525.702,655.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,156.7478,018.2682,038.98
Equity Value (M)83,785.3787,973.4192,330.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,005.891,005.891,005.89
Fair Value$83.29$87.46$91.79
Upside / Downside58.26%66.18%74.41%

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