Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sinphar Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (1734.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.26 - $69.93$46.15
Multi-Stage$31.95 - $34.94$33.42
Blended Fair Value$39.79
Current Price$31.05
Upside28.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.49%3.45%0.920.920.180.180.180.090.180.090.180.71
YoY Growth--0.00%400.01%0.00%0.00%100.01%-50.00%100.00%-48.00%-75.00%8.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.86%0.68%0.74%0.67%0.63%1.03%0.45%0.83%2.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9738.7323.24
Cash Retained (M)142.12142.12142.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.97-38.73-23.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.15103.39118.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)181.68181.68181.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.570.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.570.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$32.26$46.15$69.93
Upside / Downside3.90%48.65%125.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.84324.22339.27355.01371.49388.73400.39
Payout Ratio54.13%61.31%68.48%75.65%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.72198.76232.33268.58307.69349.86370.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)182.24184.00185.76
Year 2 PV (M)195.31199.09202.92
Year 3 PV (M)207.01213.06219.23
Year 4 PV (M)217.44225.96234.72
Year 5 PV (M)226.69237.84249.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,776.305,011.215,255.28
Equity Value (M)5,804.996,071.166,347.32
Shares Outstanding (M)181.68181.68181.68
Fair Value$31.95$33.42$34.94
Upside / Downside2.90%7.62%12.52%

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