Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.63 - $75.91$29.19
Multi-Stage$48.98 - $54.08$51.48
Blended Fair Value$40.34
Current Price$18.02
Upside123.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.77%0.82%0.020.010.010.010.010.080.090.040.020.02
YoY Growth--37.44%101.21%-13.56%-35.92%-83.19%-13.32%122.26%155.29%-15.63%1.53%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.19%0.14%0.17%0.31%1.69%1.96%0.30%0.09%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.1985.1251.07
Cash Retained (M)450.01450.01450.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.19-85.12-51.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.83364.90398.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.52
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$16.63$29.19$75.91
Upside / Downside-7.74%62.01%321.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.93679.67678.42677.17675.92674.68694.92
Payout Ratio33.91%45.13%56.35%67.56%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.92306.73382.27457.53532.51607.21642.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)299.14302.16305.19
Year 2 PV (M)363.57370.97378.44
Year 3 PV (M)424.37437.38450.66
Year 4 PV (M)481.68501.47521.87
Year 5 PV (M)535.65563.30592.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,704.0659,631.9062,679.45
Equity Value (M)58,808.4661,807.1964,927.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
Fair Value$48.98$51.48$54.08
Upside / Downside171.82%185.68%200.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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