Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Songz Automobile Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. (002454.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.95 - $66.05$61.89
Multi-Stage$9.43 - $10.33$9.87
Blended Fair Value$35.88
Current Price$8.65
Upside314.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.73%0.00%0.060.080.150.060.040.040.110.040.050.23
YoY Growth---21.56%-49.15%159.82%55.66%7.96%-68.68%151.84%-17.85%-76.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.90%1.19%2.09%0.96%0.67%0.76%2.08%0.50%0.63%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.5225.9515.57
Cash Retained (M)143.91143.91143.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.52-25.95-15.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.39117.96128.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)622.60622.60622.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.06%6.06%7.06%
Fair Value$18.95$61.89$66.05
Upside / Downside119.08%615.53%663.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.62220.20233.54247.69262.69278.61286.96
Payout Ratio30.68%42.55%54.41%66.27%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.7193.69127.07164.15205.26250.75265.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.06%6.06%7.06%
Year 1 PV (M)87.1187.9488.77
Year 2 PV (M)109.85111.95114.07
Year 3 PV (M)131.94135.75139.62
Year 4 PV (M)153.40159.33165.42
Year 5 PV (M)174.24182.69191.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,214.445,467.375,730.03
Equity Value (M)5,870.996,145.046,429.39
Shares Outstanding (M)622.60622.60622.60
Fair Value$9.43$9.87$10.33
Upside / Downside9.02%14.10%19.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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