Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Lianfa Textile Co.,Ltd (002394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.87 - $6.61$5.76
Multi-Stage$15.35 - $17.04$16.18
Blended Fair Value$10.97
Current Price$11.14
Upside-1.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.49%-12.72%0.140.890.080.360.560.680.830.710.800.80
YoY Growth---84.87%1,024.65%-78.19%-35.20%-16.66%-18.72%16.66%-11.05%0.54%50.96%
Dividend Yield--1.81%11.79%1.06%4.59%5.55%7.81%7.04%6.12%4.72%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)334.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.9141.8225.09
Cash Retained (M)273.84273.84273.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.91-41.82-25.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.93232.02248.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Fair Value$4.87$5.76$6.61
Upside / Downside-56.28%-48.30%-40.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)334.57307.50282.63259.76238.75219.43226.02
Payout Ratio18.15%32.52%46.89%61.26%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.73100.00132.53159.13180.57197.49209.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Year 1 PV (M)93.0294.0495.07
Year 2 PV (M)114.67117.20119.77
Year 3 PV (M)128.07132.35136.71
Year 4 PV (M)135.18141.22147.47
Year 5 PV (M)137.53145.26153.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,363.994,609.354,865.62
Equity Value (M)4,972.465,239.435,517.97
Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
Fair Value$15.35$16.18$17.04
Upside / Downside37.82%45.22%52.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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