Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co., Ltd. (002287.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.05 - $103.48$50.66
Multi-Stage$19.98 - $21.84$20.89
Blended Fair Value$35.77
Current Price$26.21
Upside36.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.16%7.11%0.520.380.580.330.340.310.310.290.310.29
YoY Growth--36.63%-33.91%73.65%-2.93%11.49%-0.01%5.13%-4.88%5.40%11.14%
Dividend Yield--2.31%1.75%2.30%1.16%1.44%1.54%1.30%1.18%0.81%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)488.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.4876.5545.93
Cash Retained (M)488.39488.39488.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.48-76.55-45.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)365.90411.83442.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)538.12538.12538.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.05$50.66$103.48
Upside / Downside18.46%93.27%294.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.42652.23694.63739.78787.86839.07864.25
Payout Ratio20.25%34.20%48.15%62.10%76.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.04223.08334.48459.41599.18755.17799.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)203.50205.43207.36
Year 2 PV (M)278.33283.63288.99
Year 3 PV (M)348.74358.75368.95
Year 4 PV (M)414.90430.86447.27
Year 5 PV (M)477.02500.06523.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,027.749,463.799,916.52
Equity Value (M)10,750.2411,242.5211,753.06
Shares Outstanding (M)538.12538.12538.12
Fair Value$19.98$20.89$21.84
Upside / Downside-23.78%-20.29%-16.67%

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