Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.21 - $373.52$350.04
Multi-Stage$55.44 - $60.62$57.98
Blended Fair Value$204.01
Current Price$28.09
Upside626.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.32%27.26%1.930.670.570.340.290.260.310.110.100.27
YoY Growth--186.78%17.40%69.68%17.87%10.26%-15.22%187.50%6.67%-63.24%56.92%
Dividend Yield--5.95%2.17%1.68%1.26%1.98%1.58%1.77%0.65%0.63%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,760.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,746.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,014.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)552.18345.11207.07
Cash Retained (M)1,014.231,014.231,014.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-552.18-345.11-207.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)462.05669.11807.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$153.21$350.04$373.52
Upside / Downside445.42%1,146.15%1,229.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,760.882,940.343,131.463,335.013,551.783,782.653,896.13
Payout Ratio63.26%68.61%73.96%79.31%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,746.662,017.412,315.992,644.853,006.693,404.383,603.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,875.891,893.671,911.45
Year 2 PV (M)2,002.442,040.582,079.09
Year 3 PV (M)2,126.362,187.402,249.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,247.692,334.132,423.04
Year 5 PV (M)2,366.462,480.762,599.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,874.3274,297.5877,851.85
Equity Value (M)81,493.1685,234.1289,114.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
Fair Value$55.44$57.98$60.62
Upside / Downside97.36%106.42%115.81%

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