Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.04 - $99.58$51.31
Multi-Stage$21.78 - $23.77$22.76
Blended Fair Value$37.03
Current Price$5.43
Upside581.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.83%0.00%0.210.480.780.100.000.380.570.230.000.00
YoY Growth---55.10%-38.64%700.56%0.00%-100.00%-32.84%147.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.87%11.60%2.01%0.00%26.59%15.51%3.96%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)568.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)200.80125.5075.30
Cash Retained (M)436.00436.00436.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-200.80-125.50-75.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.20310.50360.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)821.01821.01821.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.04$51.31$99.58
Upside / Downside490.09%844.86%1,733.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,004.001,069.261,138.761,212.781,291.611,375.571,416.83
Payout Ratio56.57%63.26%69.94%76.63%83.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)568.00676.40796.50929.351,076.101,238.011,310.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)616.30622.14627.99
Year 2 PV (M)661.24673.84686.55
Year 3 PV (M)702.98723.16743.73
Year 4 PV (M)741.67770.19799.53
Year 5 PV (M)777.44814.99853.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,385.3515,080.1715,801.58
Equity Value (M)17,884.9918,684.5019,513.35
Shares Outstanding (M)821.01821.01821.01
Fair Value$21.78$22.76$23.77
Upside / Downside301.18%319.12%337.71%

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