Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.S. (ULKER.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$421.51 - $1,018.74$625.75
Multi-Stage$304.31 - $331.99$317.90
Blended Fair Value$471.83
Current Price$104.50
Upside351.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.11%0.990.540.540.750.020.000.280.190.310.27
YoY Growth--82.56%0.52%-28.14%4,037.00%0.00%-100.00%41.66%-37.37%15.80%-28.79%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.53%1.73%4.88%0.09%0.00%1.59%0.88%1.68%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,200.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,246.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,953.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,440.13900.08540.05
Cash Retained (M)3,953.743,953.743,953.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,440.13-900.08-540.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,513.613,053.663,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.49369.49369.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.808.269.24
LTM Dividend per Share8.798.798.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.808.269.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.5917.0518.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$421.51$625.75$1,018.74
Upside / Downside303.35%498.80%874.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,200.667,668.708,167.178,698.039,263.409,865.5210,161.49
Payout Ratio45.09%54.07%63.06%72.04%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,246.924,146.745,149.826,265.787,505.068,878.979,399.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,754.773,790.363,825.95
Year 2 PV (M)4,222.274,302.694,383.87
Year 3 PV (M)4,651.644,785.174,921.23
Year 4 PV (M)5,045.005,239.025,438.58
Year 5 PV (M)5,404.395,665.435,936.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,362.3393,678.5798,159.99
Equity Value (M)112,440.40117,461.23122,666.08
Shares Outstanding (M)369.49369.49369.49
Fair Value$304.31$317.90$331.99
Upside / Downside191.21%204.21%217.69%

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