Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Schaeffler AG (SHAF.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.14 - $10.81$8.12
Multi-Stage$10.44 - $11.44$10.93
Blended Fair Value$9.53
Current Price$7.55
Upside26.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-3.36%77.24%0.460.510.250.450.550.550.500.500.380.00
YoY Growth---8.93%103.64%-44.63%-18.13%0.28%10.00%0.30%31.08%25,000.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.15%6.90%3.49%6.83%7.99%7.37%4.07%4.28%3.34%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.4038.3823.03
Cash Retained (M)1.001.001.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.40-38.38-23.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-60.40-37.38-22.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)664.50664.50664.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.06-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.06-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$6.14$8.12$10.81
Upside / Downside-18.65%7.61%43.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.00312.38317.86323.44329.11334.88344.93
Payout Ratio99.67%97.74%95.80%93.87%91.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.00305.32304.53303.61302.57301.40319.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)283.03285.84288.65
Year 2 PV (M)261.68266.90272.17
Year 3 PV (M)241.84249.11256.53
Year 4 PV (M)223.41232.42241.69
Year 5 PV (M)206.30216.74227.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,721.666,011.296,312.54
Equity Value (M)6,937.927,262.307,599.18
Shares Outstanding (M)664.50664.50664.50
Fair Value$10.44$10.93$11.44
Upside / Downside38.29%44.75%51.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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