Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Organon & Co. (OGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.34 - $42.41$32.07
Multi-Stage$118.01 - $130.35$124.06
Blended Fair Value$78.06
Current Price$10.68
Upside630.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%1.141.131.110.560.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.02%1.38%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.66%6.10%4.73%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)501.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)343.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.2062.6337.58
Cash Retained (M)343.00343.00343.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.20-62.63-37.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.80280.38305.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.42260.42260.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.081.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.081.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate4.20%4.20%4.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.34$32.07$42.41
Upside / Downside127.92%200.29%297.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)501.00495.99491.03486.12481.26476.45490.74
Payout Ratio31.54%43.23%54.92%66.61%78.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.00214.41269.68323.83376.86428.80453.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.20%4.20%4.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)203.70205.78207.86
Year 2 PV (M)243.41248.40253.44
Year 3 PV (M)277.67286.26295.02
Year 4 PV (M)307.00319.72332.84
Year 5 PV (M)331.86349.14367.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,368.6430,897.9332,490.28
Equity Value (M)30,732.2732,307.2333,946.57
Shares Outstanding (M)260.42260.42260.42
Fair Value$118.01$124.06$130.35
Upside / Downside1,004.96%1,061.58%1,120.53%

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