Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.24 - $64.66$49.77
Multi-Stage$45.14 - $49.41$47.23
Blended Fair Value$48.50
Current Price$88.84
Upside-45.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.63%0.00%1.060.990.990.940.930.931.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.25%0.00%4.55%1.54%0.00%-12.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.18%1.82%1.52%1.67%5.40%4.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.2027.0016.20
Cash Retained (M)140.00140.00140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.20-27.00-16.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.80113.00123.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$38.24$49.77$64.66
Upside / Downside-56.96%-43.98%-27.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.00223.08230.39237.93245.73253.78261.39
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.00102.95131.58161.97194.22228.40241.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)93.6494.5595.47
Year 2 PV (M)108.85110.99113.15
Year 3 PV (M)121.88125.49129.17
Year 4 PV (M)132.93138.20143.63
Year 5 PV (M)142.18149.27156.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,560.222,687.852,820.53
Equity Value (M)3,159.703,306.363,458.59
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
Fair Value$45.14$47.23$49.41
Upside / Downside-49.19%-46.83%-44.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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