Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (BPF-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.03 - $31.97$24.70
Multi-Stage$22.41 - $24.44$23.41
Blended Fair Value$24.05
Current Price$20.96
Upside14.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.20%4.79%1.251.121.050.920.461.241.241.181.150.99
YoY Growth--11.75%6.82%13.65%101.28%-63.02%-0.41%5.76%2.41%15.97%26.43%
Dividend Yield--7.31%7.13%6.97%5.25%3.54%18.86%7.43%5.89%5.06%5.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.534.712.82
Cash Retained (M)6.916.916.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.53-4.71-2.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.632.204.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.2624.2624.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.090.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.090.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate2.70%3.70%4.70%
Fair Value$19.03$24.70$31.97
Upside / Downside-9.22%17.84%52.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.6539.0540.4941.9943.5445.1546.51
Payout Ratio81.66%83.33%85.00%86.66%88.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7532.5434.4236.3938.4640.6443.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate2.70%3.70%4.70%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4529.7430.03
Year 2 PV (M)28.2028.7529.31
Year 3 PV (M)26.9927.7928.60
Year 4 PV (M)25.8326.8527.90
Year 5 PV (M)24.7025.9327.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)408.56428.84449.92
Equity Value (M)543.74567.91592.97
Shares Outstanding (M)24.2624.2624.26
Fair Value$22.41$23.41$24.44
Upside / Downside6.93%11.68%16.61%

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