Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - GlobalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.64 - $383.47$232.51
Multi-Stage$109.35 - $119.43$114.30
Blended Fair Value$173.40
Current Price$133.27
Upside30.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.20%-1.01%1.821.691.610.860.920.730.680.610.400.59
YoY Growth--7.91%5.20%86.07%-6.00%26.36%6.98%10.95%53.36%-32.54%-70.69%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.50%2.54%1.39%1.95%2.17%2.37%2.06%1.64%3.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,230.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,167.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,063.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)846.00528.75317.25
Cash Retained (M)3,063.003,063.003,063.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-846.00-528.75-317.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,217.002,534.252,745.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)598.50598.50598.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.704.234.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.951.951.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.704.234.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.656.186.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$155.64$232.51$383.47
Upside / Downside16.78%74.46%187.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,230.004,504.954,797.775,109.635,441.755,795.475,969.33
Payout Ratio27.59%40.07%52.55%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,167.001,805.182,521.383,323.074,218.325,215.925,521.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,635.581,651.081,666.59
Year 2 PV (M)2,069.882,109.302,149.10
Year 3 PV (M)2,471.712,542.662,614.96
Year 4 PV (M)2,842.832,952.163,064.61
Year 5 PV (M)3,184.893,338.723,498.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,240.3755,811.9058,481.85
Equity Value (M)65,445.2668,405.8371,475.55
Shares Outstanding (M)598.50598.50598.50
Fair Value$109.35$114.30$119.43
Upside / Downside-17.95%-14.24%-10.39%

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