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Definitive Analysis

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Verizon Communications, 5.9% 15 Feb 2054 (VZA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.03 - $127.93$85.38
Multi-Stage$151.15 - $166.40$158.63
Blended Fair Value$122.01
Current Price$25.55
Upside377.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.35%3.73%1.651.611.581.531.501.471.431.391.361.25
YoY Growth--2.03%2.04%3.45%2.08%2.16%2.50%3.17%2.27%8.48%9.42%
Dividend Yield--6.44%6.31%6.19%5.98%5.86%5.74%5.60%5.24%5.13%4.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,885.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,419.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,466.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,577.002,860.631,716.38
Cash Retained (M)11,466.0011,466.0011,466.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,577.00-2,860.63-1,716.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,889.008,605.389,749.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.10
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Fair Value$60.03$85.38$127.93
Upside / Downside134.96%234.17%400.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,885.0023,193.7423,506.6423,823.7624,145.1624,470.9025,205.02
Payout Ratio49.90%57.92%65.94%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,419.0013,433.3115,499.9017,619.8019,794.0722,023.8123,314.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)12,688.3012,814.7412,941.18
Year 2 PV (M)13,828.3114,105.2914,385.01
Year 3 PV (M)14,847.7815,296.1015,753.36
Year 4 PV (M)15,754.9116,392.3617,048.97
Year 5 PV (M)16,557.4417,399.0418,274.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)959,350.631,008,113.531,058,839.44
Equity Value (M)1,033,027.371,084,121.071,137,242.48
Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
Fair Value$151.15$158.63$166.40
Upside / Downside491.60%520.86%551.29%

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