Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (TFG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$267.95 - $315.69$295.85
Multi-Stage$57.24 - $62.68$59.90
Blended Fair Value$177.88
Current Price$5.05
Upside3,422.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.44%-7.53%0.110.400.180.130.290.100.140.060.000.00
YoY Growth---72.75%129.10%34.36%-54.35%180.48%-25.06%140.18%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.43%11.94%3.34%3.15%5.29%3.26%4.53%1.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,170.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,053.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,117.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,434.11896.32537.79
Cash Retained (M)4,117.194,117.194,117.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,434.11-896.32-537.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,683.083,220.873,579.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,517.244,517.244,517.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$267.95$295.85$315.69
Upside / Downside5,205.89%5,758.33%6,151.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,170.537,636.618,132.998,661.639,224.649,824.2410,118.97
Payout Ratio42.58%52.07%61.55%71.03%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,053.343,976.035,005.786,152.597,427.348,841.829,360.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,720.113,755.373,790.64
Year 2 PV (M)4,382.124,465.584,549.84
Year 3 PV (M)5,039.375,184.035,331.44
Year 4 PV (M)5,691.915,910.806,135.95
Year 5 PV (M)6,339.756,645.966,963.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)233,371.49244,643.42256,346.75
Equity Value (M)258,544.75270,605.18283,118.51
Shares Outstanding (M)4,517.244,517.244,517.24
Fair Value$57.24$59.90$62.68
Upside / Downside1,033.37%1,086.24%1,141.09%

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