Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Santos Limited (STO.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.89 - $71.19$33.04
Multi-Stage$13.27 - $14.47$13.86
Blended Fair Value$23.45
Current Price$5.04
Upside365.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.61%19.98%0.300.240.160.070.040.080.020.000.010.05
YoY Growth--27.54%44.96%142.53%62.50%-45.82%243.84%0.00%-100.00%-72.53%-2.38%
Dividend Yield--7.36%4.60%3.38%1.48%0.86%1.34%0.58%0.00%0.46%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,605.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)684.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)457.80286.13171.68
Cash Retained (M)684.00684.00684.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-457.80-286.13-171.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.20397.88512.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,258.783,258.783,258.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.89$33.04$71.19
Upside / Downside294.56%555.53%1,312.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,289.002,437.792,596.242,765.002,944.723,136.133,230.21
Payout Ratio70.12%74.09%78.07%82.05%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,605.001,806.262,026.912,268.602,533.162,822.522,987.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,649.411,665.051,680.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,690.171,722.361,754.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,727.441,777.031,827.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,761.391,829.131,898.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,792.171,878.731,968.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,613.1136,284.9438,020.75
Equity Value (M)43,233.6945,157.2447,151.26
Shares Outstanding (M)3,258.783,258.783,258.78
Fair Value$13.27$13.86$14.47
Upside / Downside163.23%174.94%187.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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