Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Siam City Cement Public Company Limited (SCCC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$210.27 - $346.17$270.66
Multi-Stage$299.92 - $327.95$313.68
Blended Fair Value$292.17
Current Price$149.00
Upside96.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.37%0.24%11.869.419.009.634.888.719.1813.1611.5811.58
YoY Growth--26.05%4.55%-6.57%97.54%-44.02%-5.16%-30.22%13.69%0.01%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--7.46%6.75%6.45%6.28%2.94%7.32%4.12%5.04%4.05%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,452.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,299.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,152.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,090.48681.55408.93
Cash Retained (M)1,152.701,152.701,152.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,090.48-681.55-408.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.22471.15743.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
LTM Dividend per Share14.4314.4314.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.6416.0116.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$210.27$270.66$346.17
Upside / Downside41.12%81.65%132.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,452.395,574.035,698.395,825.535,955.506,088.376,271.02
Payout Ratio78.86%81.09%83.32%85.54%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,299.694,519.824,747.634,983.365,227.255,479.535,800.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)4,133.444,174.274,215.10
Year 2 PV (M)3,970.624,049.454,129.06
Year 3 PV (M)3,811.483,925.554,041.88
Year 4 PV (M)3,656.243,802.863,953.86
Year 5 PV (M)3,505.063,681.633,865.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,300.0373,841.5677,524.42
Equity Value (M)89,376.8693,475.3397,729.57
Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
Fair Value$299.92$313.68$327.95
Upside / Downside101.29%110.52%120.10%

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