Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Safehold Inc. (SAFE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$265.23 - $312.48$292.84
Multi-Stage$78.93 - $86.50$82.64
Blended Fair Value$187.74
Current Price$15.56
Upside1,106.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.93%-0.14%0.710.640.590.500.000.230.150.040.720.72
YoY Growth--9.88%9.13%17.36%0.00%-100.00%52.12%283.54%-94.45%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.77%3.20%2.00%0.90%0.00%0.37%0.70%0.25%1.25%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.5314.088.45
Cash Retained (M)61.7661.7661.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.53-14.08-8.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.2347.6853.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.670.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.670.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$265.23$292.84$312.48
Upside / Downside1,604.56%1,782.03%1,908.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.63119.95127.75136.05144.90154.32158.95
Payout Ratio45.17%54.13%63.10%72.07%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8764.9480.6198.05117.42138.88147.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.2161.7962.37
Year 2 PV (M)71.6373.0074.37
Year 3 PV (M)82.1384.4986.89
Year 4 PV (M)92.7296.2899.95
Year 5 PV (M)103.38108.37113.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,246.565,499.975,763.08
Equity Value (M)5,657.645,923.916,200.23
Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
Fair Value$78.93$82.64$86.50
Upside / Downside407.24%431.11%455.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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