Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$414.18 - $967.79$608.03
Multi-Stage$305.84 - $333.44$319.39
Blended Fair Value$463.71
Current Price$263.96
Upside75.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS126.78%76.67%13.7326.096.631.440.530.230.060.050.050.05
YoY Growth---47.38%293.29%360.69%172.44%130.91%292.86%7.69%8.33%0.00%7.74%
Dividend Yield--5.20%12.78%2.65%0.91%0.75%0.15%0.03%0.03%0.04%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,580.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,176.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)951.20594.50356.70
Cash Retained (M)2,176.002,176.002,176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-951.20-594.50-356.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,224.801,581.501,819.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
LTM Dividend per Share10.7410.7410.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.8417.3218.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$414.18$608.03$967.79
Upside / Downside56.91%130.35%266.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,756.005,065.145,394.375,745.016,118.436,516.136,711.62
Payout Ratio54.25%61.40%68.55%75.70%82.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,580.003,109.893,697.754,348.915,069.095,864.526,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,812.542,839.202,865.86
Year 2 PV (M)3,024.453,082.053,140.21
Year 3 PV (M)3,216.933,309.283,403.38
Year 4 PV (M)3,391.143,521.553,655.69
Year 5 PV (M)3,548.153,719.533,897.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,485.8060,262.3963,145.24
Equity Value (M)73,479.0176,734.0080,107.84
Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
Fair Value$305.84$319.39$333.44
Upside / Downside15.87%21.00%26.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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