Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$275.54 - $651.67$406.14
Multi-Stage$191.10 - $208.96$199.87
Blended Fair Value$303.00
Current Price$132.13
Upside129.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%8.29%0.830.700.710.730.640.610.510.560.620.57
YoY Growth--17.72%-1.15%-2.52%13.56%6.40%17.62%-7.74%-9.56%7.51%53.29%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.60%1.22%1.75%1.23%2.71%1.84%1.89%2.62%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,630.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,454.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)526.07328.79197.28
Cash Retained (M)2,454.962,454.962,454.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-526.07-328.79-197.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,928.892,126.172,257.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.4111.3812.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$275.54$406.14$651.67
Upside / Downside108.54%207.38%393.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,630.362,801.332,983.413,177.343,383.863,603.813,711.93
Payout Ratio6.67%23.33%40.00%56.67%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.39653.671,193.391,800.512,481.513,243.433,433.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)591.44597.04602.65
Year 2 PV (M)976.96995.571,014.35
Year 3 PV (M)1,333.631,371.921,410.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,663.041,727.001,792.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,966.712,061.702,160.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,103.0533,653.6435,263.57
Equity Value (M)38,634.8340,406.8642,244.61
Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
Fair Value$191.10$199.87$208.96
Upside / Downside44.63%51.27%58.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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