Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$365.55 - $820.79$529.42
Multi-Stage$264.60 - $288.91$276.53
Blended Fair Value$402.98
Current Price$246.95
Upside63.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.33%-2.77%1.150.400.406.372.642.801.110.670.880.69
YoY Growth--188.03%0.00%-93.75%141.55%-5.61%150.91%65.63%-23.82%28.59%-54.78%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.19%0.28%5.59%2.76%3.79%1.53%1.10%2.25%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,713.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,870.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,842.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,142.701,339.19803.51
Cash Retained (M)7,842.607,842.607,842.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,142.70-1,339.19-803.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,699.906,503.417,039.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)587.84587.84587.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.7011.0611.97
LTM Dividend per Share4.884.884.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.7011.0611.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.5815.9516.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$365.55$529.42$820.79
Upside / Downside48.02%114.38%232.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,713.5011,409.8812,151.5212,941.3713,782.5614,678.4215,118.78
Payout Ratio26.80%39.44%52.08%64.72%77.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,870.904,499.786,328.298,375.5010,662.1013,210.5813,984.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,063.094,101.604,140.11
Year 2 PV (M)5,159.605,257.885,357.08
Year 3 PV (M)6,166.026,343.026,523.38
Year 4 PV (M)7,087.647,360.217,640.57
Year 5 PV (M)7,929.498,312.488,710.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)125,138.21131,182.43137,457.98
Equity Value (M)155,544.04162,557.62169,829.26
Shares Outstanding (M)587.84587.84587.84
Fair Value$264.60$276.53$288.91
Upside / Downside7.15%11.98%16.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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