Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$231.88 - $517.16$335.07
Multi-Stage$236.75 - $259.65$247.98
Blended Fair Value$291.53
Current Price$125.38
Upside132.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%8.22%1.121.081.000.950.870.810.740.660.580.52
YoY Growth--3.59%7.68%6.24%8.43%7.78%9.86%11.38%13.73%11.37%2.60%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.16%1.09%1.11%1.20%1.78%1.32%1.26%1.33%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)392.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.7754.2332.54
Cash Retained (M)392.55392.55392.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.77-54.23-32.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)305.77338.31360.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.4436.4436.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.399.299.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.399.299.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.5310.4211.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Fair Value$231.88$335.07$517.16
Upside / Downside84.94%167.24%312.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.86452.27471.46491.46512.31534.04550.06
Payout Ratio9.52%25.62%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.32115.86196.66284.11378.62480.64508.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Year 1 PV (M)106.76107.80108.83
Year 2 PV (M)166.98170.23173.51
Year 3 PV (M)222.28228.80235.45
Year 4 PV (M)272.95283.68294.72
Year 5 PV (M)319.28335.04351.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,537.717,909.908,296.64
Equity Value (M)8,625.959,035.449,460.58
Shares Outstanding (M)36.4436.4436.44
Fair Value$236.75$247.98$259.65
Upside / Downside88.82%97.79%107.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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