Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.58 - $25.69$21.50
Multi-Stage$28.46 - $31.29$29.85
Blended Fair Value$25.67
Current Price$26.63
Upside-3.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS8.23%-6.81%0.440.380.250.110.280.290.300.280.800.95
YoY Growth--14.09%56.03%120.31%-60.49%-4.14%-0.59%4.94%-64.78%-15.29%6.89%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.60%0.98%1.05%8.59%1.70%1.84%1.79%7.21%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,077.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.00166.2599.75
Cash Retained (M)1,077.001,077.001,077.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.00-166.25-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.00910.75977.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.032.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Fair Value$17.58$21.50$25.69
Upside / Downside-33.98%-19.28%-3.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,330.001,321.261,312.581,303.951,295.381,286.871,325.48
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00438.90622.34803.35981.961,158.181,226.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)399.60403.66407.72
Year 2 PV (M)515.87526.42537.07
Year 3 PV (M)606.29624.97644.04
Year 4 PV (M)674.72702.59731.31
Year 5 PV (M)724.55762.14801.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,386.6014,081.1914,804.32
Equity Value (M)16,307.6317,100.9717,925.74
Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
Fair Value$28.46$29.85$31.29
Upside / Downside6.88%12.08%17.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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