Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

The Hershey Company (HSY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.76 - $381.30$227.11
Multi-Stage$111.58 - $121.51$116.46
Blended Fair Value$171.79
Current Price$184.11
Upside-6.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.19%9.43%5.344.373.813.373.153.002.772.592.462.34
YoY Growth--22.02%14.71%12.98%7.06%4.98%8.50%6.89%5.37%4.90%8.11%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.21%1.48%1.56%1.98%2.18%2.43%2.67%2.26%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,359.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,084.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)275.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)271.97169.98101.99
Cash Retained (M)275.39275.39275.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-271.97-169.98-101.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.42105.41173.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.33203.33203.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.520.85
LTM Dividend per Share5.335.335.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.520.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.355.856.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$150.76$227.11$381.30
Upside / Downside-18.11%23.36%107.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,359.831,448.221,542.361,642.611,749.381,863.091,918.98
Payout Ratio79.75%81.80%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,084.451,184.631,293.251,410.991,538.571,676.781,775.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,074.211,084.391,094.57
Year 2 PV (M)1,063.391,083.651,104.09
Year 3 PV (M)1,052.061,082.261,113.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,040.251,080.261,121.40
Year 5 PV (M)1,028.021,077.671,129.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,428.7418,270.5619,144.59
Equity Value (M)22,686.6623,678.7724,706.91
Shares Outstanding (M)203.33203.33203.33
Fair Value$111.58$116.46$121.51
Upside / Downside-39.40%-36.75%-34.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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