Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) (HMSB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.35 - $117.24$92.52
Multi-Stage$199.56 - $219.92$209.54
Blended Fair Value$151.03
Current Price$140.99
Upside7.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.31%-4.00%6.516.596.666.700.0010.0510.0510.0510.0510.05
YoY Growth---1.14%-1.03%-0.66%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.63%
Dividend Yield--4.45%4.52%5.03%4.00%0.00%5.89%7.23%7.30%4.22%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,221.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,660.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,176.201,360.13816.08
Cash Retained (M)5,660.005,660.005,660.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,176.20-1,360.13-816.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,483.804,299.884,843.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.253.253.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.425.936.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Fair Value$72.35$92.52$117.24
Upside / Downside-48.69%-34.38%-16.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,881.0010,788.2510,696.2910,605.1210,514.7210,425.1010,737.85
Payout Ratio47.98%56.39%64.79%73.19%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,221.006,083.086,930.097,762.228,579.659,382.599,932.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)5,707.725,765.875,824.03
Year 2 PV (M)6,101.226,226.186,352.41
Year 3 PV (M)6,412.136,610.136,812.16
Year 4 PV (M)6,650.056,925.247,208.89
Year 5 PV (M)6,823.657,178.437,547.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)288,770.46303,784.33319,416.29
Equity Value (M)320,465.23336,490.19353,161.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
Fair Value$199.56$209.54$219.92
Upside / Downside41.54%48.62%55.99%

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