Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Home Product Center Public Company Limited (HMPRO-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Home ImprovementSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.71 - $7.38$5.94
Multi-Stage$7.08 - $7.74$7.40
Blended Fair Value$6.67
Current Price$7.45
Upside-10.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%32.96%0.410.390.370.320.310.370.330.280.270.17
YoY Growth--2.56%5.40%15.64%3.25%-16.25%12.17%17.80%3.76%59.99%628.11%
Dividend Yield--4.71%3.73%2.60%2.04%2.12%3.38%2.20%2.00%2.83%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,136.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,362.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)773.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,227.30767.06460.24
Cash Retained (M)773.53773.53773.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,227.30-767.06-460.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-453.776.46313.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,984.4412,984.4412,984.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$4.71$5.94$7.38
Upside / Downside-36.79%-20.31%-0.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,136.516,233.906,332.836,433.336,535.436,639.146,838.32
Payout Ratio87.39%87.92%88.44%88.96%89.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,362.985,480.585,600.555,722.955,847.835,975.236,325.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)4,994.005,043.655,093.30
Year 2 PV (M)4,650.254,743.174,837.01
Year 3 PV (M)4,330.004,460.434,593.45
Year 4 PV (M)4,031.674,194.404,362.01
Year 5 PV (M)3,753.773,944.114,142.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,172.7073,730.9177,432.02
Equity Value (M)91,932.3996,116.68100,459.89
Shares Outstanding (M)12,984.4412,984.4412,984.44
Fair Value$7.08$7.40$7.74
Upside / Downside-4.96%-0.64%3.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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