Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ball Corporation (BLL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.33 - $221.61$176.76
Multi-Stage$181.70 - $199.42$190.39
Blended Fair Value$183.58
Current Price$69.49
Upside164.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS13.60%14.72%0.850.800.690.640.480.450.290.250.250.26
YoY Growth--6.55%15.66%8.79%32.85%6.20%55.42%15.60%-1.24%-3.32%21.68%
Dividend Yield--1.23%0.89%0.82%0.98%0.82%1.14%0.78%0.70%0.72%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,811.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)361.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,450.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)762.20476.38285.83
Cash Retained (M)3,450.003,450.003,450.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-762.20-476.38-285.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,687.802,973.633,164.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6611.6612.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$139.33$176.76$221.61
Upside / Downside100.50%154.37%218.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,811.003,889.053,968.714,049.994,132.944,217.584,344.11
Payout Ratio9.47%25.58%41.68%57.79%73.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)361.00994.741,654.302,340.453,054.013,795.834,018.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)905.50914.46923.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,370.771,398.031,425.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,765.321,818.251,872.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,096.872,181.112,267.87
Year 5 PV (M)2,372.362,492.102,616.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,451.5645,644.5847,925.27
Equity Value (M)51,962.3854,448.5357,030.97
Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
Fair Value$181.70$190.39$199.42
Upside / Downside161.47%173.98%186.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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