Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

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Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management S.A. (ATRUST.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $12.25$9.94
Multi-Stage$11.42 - $12.48$11.94
Blended Fair Value$10.94
Current Price$8.38
Upside30.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.43%-10.49%0.530.210.340.640.670.100.150.000.150.20
YoY Growth--149.11%-36.38%-47.29%-4.81%586.60%-35.05%0.00%-100.00%-24.99%-87.56%
Dividend Yield--6.19%2.93%6.40%12.62%12.40%1.25%0.21%0.00%0.06%10.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.520.320.19
Cash Retained (M)0.860.860.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.52-0.32-0.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.340.540.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.083.083.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$7.94$9.94$12.25
Upside / Downside-5.28%18.61%46.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.582.622.662.712.752.792.88
Payout Ratio66.75%71.40%76.05%80.70%85.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.721.872.032.182.352.512.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)1.701.721.73
Year 2 PV (M)1.671.701.74
Year 3 PV (M)1.631.681.73
Year 4 PV (M)1.591.661.72
Year 5 PV (M)1.551.631.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)27.0528.4229.85
Equity Value (M)35.2036.8138.49
Shares Outstanding (M)3.083.083.08
Fair Value$11.42$11.94$12.48
Upside / Downside36.25%42.49%48.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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